Copper Prices Reclaim the 80,000 Mark Amid Weak Downstream Consumption, Spot Premiums Jump Initially and Then Pull Back [SMM South China Spot Copper Cathode Weekly Review]

Sep 11, 2025

Guangdong Region: This week, spot premiums in the region jumped initially and then pulled back. At the beginning of the week, premiums increased slightly as inventory continued to decline. On Thursday, as copper prices jumped above 80,000 yuan/mt, downstream purchasing appetite weakened, and suppliers lowered prices to sell, causing spot premiums to pull back. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 0 yuan/mt, flat WoW; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt, flat WoW. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong was 50 yuan/mt higher in Shanghai, a relatively small difference that left no room for inter-regional transfers. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 22,000 mt, down 3,200 mt WoW, while warrants totaled 10,000 mt, up 150 mt WoW. Specifically, warehouse arrivals this week were 9,100 mt/week, down 3,500 mt/week WoW, significantly below the annual average (14,000 mt/week). Arrivals of both imported copper and domestic copper were low this week. Outflows from warehouses were 12,300 mt/week, up 1,500 mt/week WoW, but still below the annual average (14,200 mt/week). Although downstream consumption improved, it was weaker than the same period last year, indicating an underperforming peak season.

Looking ahead to next week, with the delivery date approaching and spot premiums at low levels, shipments of domestic copper to warehouses are expected to increase WoW, while imported copper volumes are likely to remain stable. Total supply is expected to be slightly higher than this week. In terms of downstream consumption, after the delivery period and as the peak season gradually begins, end-use consumption is expected to rebound gradually. Therefore, we believe that next week will see increased supply and weak recovery in consumption. Weekly inventory is expected to increase slightly, and spot premiums are likely to remain at low levels.

(The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this information to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)